In Brentford's final game before the March international break, the Bees fell to a 2-1 loss at Burnley. The result left them just four points above the drop zone.
There were real concerns they could be sucked into a relegation dogfight and ultimately return to the Championship. Fortunately for Brentford and head coach Thomas Frank, Bryan Mbeumo returned from a lengthy spell on the sidelines in the defeat at Turf Moor.
The 24-year-old had been absent owing to an ankle injury sustained in the 2-1 loss at Brighton back in December, and boy did the Bees miss the Cameroonian.
Much was made of Ivan Toney's return to first team duties back in January but even if the England international has been solid following his availability after a ban, Mbeumo's absence almost proved costly for the west London side.
This is evidenced in that Brentford have won only two of 16 league matches he hasn't started this season, and one of those was Toney's first game back follow his lengthy suspension as an inspired Brentford defeated Nottingham Forest 3-2 at the turn of the year.
By comparison, Frank's side have won seven of 18 matches Mbeumo has started, with the win ratio rising from 12.5 per cent to 38.9 per cent. The number of goals scored per game increases from 1.19 to 1.83 when the wideman features from the outset, further signifying his importance to Brentford. Only Yoane Wissa (10) has scored more goals than Mbeumo (8) for the Bees this season, while the latter has registered more assists (5) than any of his teammates.
In the final third, Brentford clearly missed Mbeumo's impact as the Cameroon international ranks second for shots (2.7) and third for key passes per 90 (1.6) for the Bees.
It's no coincidence that Brentford scored more than two goals in just one of the games he missed due to injury, that the aforementioned win over Forest. In his three starts since his return, they have done so twice, firstly in the 3-3 draw at Aston Villa and then the 5-1 mauling of Luton on Saturday, which saw Brentford go 10 points clear of the relegation-threatened Hatters to all but guarantee their top-flight safety.
Brentford had previously established themselves as one of the more entertaining sides in the Premier League but few outside of the club could have predicted Mbeumo would play such a key role in their fluid frontline. It's only in his absence that neutrals fully realised his unavailability took the sting out of the Bees' tail.
With that in mind, Brentford approach the summer window at a bit of a crossroads. They are a more testing opponent with Toney leading the charge but with the 28-year-old speaking candidly about his desire to test his luck at a higher level, the Bees would be better off cashing in on the striker and investing the money elsewhere. After all, Mbeumo, and not Toney, is proving to be Brentford's main main.
The Bees already have a potential replacement for Toney in Neal Maupay, who re-joined on loan from Everton with an option to buy last summer, and with Wissa and Mbeumo each hitting form once more, Frank can look ahead to next season with a refreshed frontline.
A key pass every 44.4 minutes is the best return of any Brentford player in 2024, while he has a better WhoScored.com rating (7.07) than any other teammate in the 2023/24 Premier League campaign.
Keeping Mbeumo fit is evidently the key, though they'll need to ward off any potential interest in their no. 19. With his fine showings both pre and post-injury, Brentford won't be able to keep Mbeumo under wraps.
Toney's future will fortunately dominate the summer window but if potential suitors had any sense about them, they'd be looking to Mbeumo in the off-season. A spell on the sidelines won't have impacted his market value; if anything that'll have risen given the Bees' sub-par showings in Mbeumo's absence.
And having stepped out of Toney's shadow, it's clear that Mbuemo, and not the English frontman, is now Brentford's most valuable player.
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