GRAINS-Wheat rises on production concerns, soybeans pressured by crop-friendly U.S. weather
SINGAPORE, June 11 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat future gained more than 1 percent on Monday, rising for a fourth session in five with support from expectations of lower production in the Black Sea region. Soybeans ticked down to trade near last session's lowest since mid-January as near-perfect weather across the U.S. Midwest raised hopes of a bumper harvest. FUNDAMENTALS * Dry weather in top wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine is underpinning the wheat market. * Russia's wheat production is expected to decline to around 72 million tonnes in the year to June 2019, compared with a record output of 84.99 million tonnes this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. * Severe drought in eastern and southern regions could shrink Ukraine's 2018 wheat harvest by 15-30 percent below original forecasts, the state hydrometeorological centre said on Friday. * Ukraine has seen no substantial rain since April and none is forecast in the next 7 days. High temperatures and a lack of rain could reduce wheat yield, a senior official at the centre, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters. * Chicago wheat futures are forecast to remain over $5 a bushel in the second half of 2018, reflecting weather-reduced harvests in several countries, Commerzbank said on Thursday. * Still, relieved farmers in Australia's export-focused west are celebrating good rainfall at the end of the winter wheat-planting window, although conditions remain parched in the eastern states. * The rain has provided relief to some parts of the country after difficult conditions threatened to cut crop yields for a second successive season in the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter. * Rainy conditions across the heart of the Midwest farm belt pressured grain prices this week as recently planted corn and soybean crops are off to a strong start to the growing season. The U.S. Agriculture Department's crop condition ratings are among the highest on record for both crops. * Large speculators cut their net long position in Chicago Board of Trade corn futures in the week to June 5, regulatory data released on Friday showed. * The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, trimmed their net short position in CBOT wheat and cut their net long position in soybeans. MARKET NEWS * Stocks markets were expected to be on the defensive on Monday as a weekend G7 summit fanned trade war fears after U.S. President Donald Trump backed out of a joint communique in a blow to the group's efforts to show a united front. DATA AHEAD (GMT) No major data scheduled for release on Monday Grains prices at 0041 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 526.50 6.50 +1.25% +1.30% 516.50 54 CBOT corn 378.25 0.50 +0.13% +0.00% 397.59 28 CBOT soy 969.75 0.50 +0.05% -2.46% 1019.98 18 CBOT rice 11.16 -$0.03 -0.22% -3.46% $12.18 36 WTI crude 65.60 -$0.14 -0.21% -0.53% $68.88 39 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.179 -$0.001 -0.10% +0.10% USD/AUD 0.7602 -0.002 -0.30% -0.83% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
