Insta-reaction to recent developments on the court and off the field …
Sturdied by one of their best defensive performances of the season, the Wildcats took control in the second half in Tempe on Thursday night and, as a result, took control of the conference.
Not that they ever fully lost control, of course. But the race for the regular-season title would feel substantially different at this moment had Arizona stumbled at ASU and exited the weekend with a one-game lead on the Los Angeles schools.
But now? The Wildcats have a two-game lead on the L.A.s, which is really a three-game lead on USC because of the head-to-head result and a three-game lead on UCLA because of the remaining schedules.
Arizona (11-3) visits the Oregon schools and hosts the Bay Area teams.
UCLA (10-5) heads out on the difficult Mountain roadtrip and finishes at USC (10-5).
Winning percentage (conference play) of UCLA’s final three opponents: 57.7.
Winning percentage (conference play) of Arizona’s final four opponents: 38.8.
From this vantage point, the best the Bruins can do is 2-1 — and 1-2 is much more likely.
The Wildcats probably could split their final four and still win the title outright.
Hard to envision the second-place team finishing 13-5.
2. Boatwright’s down, but USC’s not out (of the NCAAs).
Gut reaction to Friday’s news that USC forward Bennie Boatwright will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury:
It’s USC’s version of the Chris Boucher injury.
The timing isn’t the same; Boatwright and Boucher aren’t similar players; and these Trojans aren’t anything like last year’s Ducks.
But the situations are similar in one broad respect: The sudden onus on the surrounding pieces to elevate their play for the postseason.
Boucher’s injury in the Pac-12 tournament, in a sense, unleashed Jordan Bell on the NCAAs.
Might Boatwright’s absence create a similar situation for Chimezie Metu, allowing him to take an already impressive game to another level?
Or will Elijah Stewart elevate his play (he was awfully good Saturday night against Oregon State).
Or might role players like Jordan Usher and Jonah Mathews increase their production?
Worth keeping in mind:
The NCAA selection committee will give significant weight to USC’s performance from this point forward, because the Boatwright-less roster is the one that would appear in the NCAAs.
The Trojans’ uneven performance for much of the season will matter less if its finishes with a flourish in the post-Boatwright existence.
3. Here come the Ducks.
Yep, here comes a team that just got swept, that’s .500 in conference play and that has little chance for an NCAA at-large berth.
But closer inspection reveals a team that’s rapidly improving and is absolutely a threat to decimate its half of the bracket in the Pac-12 tournament.
All the disparate parts tossed into the Dana Altman stew are learning to play together and getting comfortable in their roles, just in time for Las Vegas.
What we witnessed this weekend — the Ducks lost at USC on a last-second alley-oop and lost at UCLA in overtime — was arguably the most impressive weekend of the conference season by a team that lost twice.
That’s not insignificant, not at this point in the season.
Oregon has a difficult road to securing a top-four seed in the Pac-12 tournament.
But even if they’re relegated to the opening round, the Ducks clearly should be placed in the group of teams capable of winning the title.
4. Whoa, Nellie: What a great idea.
This was mentioned in the Friday newsletter but is absolutely worth repeating here.
The Rose Bowl Legacy Foundation is planning to erect a statue of Keith Jackson outside the stadium.
The cost is $400,000.
The Hotline isn’t advocating for readers to donate, but we’ll go halfway there with a modest Public Service Announcement:
If you’re curious about the endeavor, here’s the link to the donation site.
Jackson was the voice of the Granddaddy, and of the sport, to so many and for so long.
5. Mike Leach loses another.
Two more, actually.
Washington State had already lost four assistant coaches this winter when a double-shot of news broke in recent days:
Insider receivers coach Derek Sage is headed to UCLA to join Chip Kelly’s staff, and strength coach Jason Loscalzo is joining the Bears (Chicago, not Cal).
It’s highly unusual for six key members of a coaching staff to depart in one offseason, but Washington State isn’t a usual situation:
The Cougars have won far more games in recent seasons than location and resources would suggest.
That makes them vulnerable to raids by programs with more cash, and by that I mean: Just about every program.
According to the USA Today salary database, Washington State’s total compensation for assistants/coordinators in 2017 was $2.742 million.
Within the Power Five conferences, only Arizona, Virginia, Oregon State, Indiana, Iowa State and Texas Tech had smaller staff salary pools (public schools only).
None of those programs have reeled off three consecutive seasons of 8+ wins.
When you don’t pay much and you win, keeping the staff intact is as tough as converting third-and-20.
As many know, the Hotline’s parent website, www.mercurynews.com, recently moved to a subscription model. I’m delighted to announce that I’ve secured a special rate for Pac-12 Hotline readers: 12 cents per day for 12 months (for new subscribers).
Your subscription will help support Hotline coverage of the conference — not just the players, coaches and games but the important off-the-court issues like conference finances and the future of the Pac-12 Networks.
Please consider subscribing today. Click here for the Hotline discount. Thanks very much for all the support.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
